The recent above normal rainfall and a significant cut in import duties on edible oils are expected to support easing food inflation in the coming months, according to a report by Union Bank of India.
India's retail inflation in the first quarter of FY26 is expected to undershoot the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast of 2.9 per cent, according to a recent report by Bank of Baroda (BoB).
The global economy is under growing pressure, with growth expected to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024, according to the UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects report.
The outlook for food inflation in India has turned decisively positive over the recent correction in vegetable prices, coupled with estimates of a record wheat and higher pulses production, the Minutes of the latest RBI monetary policy said.
As inflation hits a multi-year low and expectations remain subdued, a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of 50 basis points is possible in June and August, said a report by SBI Research.
Retail inflation in the month of March fell to 3.34 per cent from 3.61 % in February, according to the official data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
Consumer price index (CPI) or retail inflation is likely to undershoot the Reserve Bank's target in the January-March 2025 quarter, opening more policy space for easing the policy rate, Bank of Baroda said.
Core inflation edged higher in February, mainly due to a surge in gold prices, but the stabilization of global edible oil prices and expectations of a normal monsoon suggest a favourable food inflation trend in the coming months.
The reason of the surge in the wholesale inflation in the country in December is due to an increase in manufacturing inflation, according to a report by ICICI Bank.
Inflation in India is expected to ease in the coming months, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projected to remain in the range of 4.2-4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY25, according to a report by Bank of Baroda.