“It will be a fragile ceasefire because…” US based analyst Michael Kugelman on India-Pakistan agreement

Updated:1 year, 1 month ago

Washington DC (US), May 12, 2025(ANI): On the current situation between India and Pakistan, Washington DC-based South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman said, "It's really been quite a few weeks given how we saw such a major escalation intention so quickly over the last few days and then further to be this very sudden ceasefire that appeared to come out of nowhere, it really is quite remarkable. I think that India-Pakistan relations were at one of the lowest points in a number of decades, and they were closer to going to war than at any time since the Kargil crisis and in that sense, the ceasefire really de-escalated things in a big way. But I think that it will be a fragile ceasefire because we know that tensions remain quite high between both countries..., "We had seen a consistent position from the US government calling for de-escalation, so there definitely had not been any type of active mediation early on in the crisis but the US position from the started had been calling for de-escalation, even though indeed Vice President Vance and President Trump had had signalled that the US was only going to do some watch. There are two reasons why we saw the US jump in the way it did to push for a ceasefire. The first reason is escalation dynamics. This was a crisis that escalated very quickly. You had significant levels of military action that were used by both sides...The second reason is the nuclear issue. My sense is that the US government was very concerned when you had the Indian targeting a particular air base in Rawalpindi, which is known to be near nuclear sites..."

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“It will be a fragile ceasefire because…” US based analyst Michael Kugelman on India-Pakistan agreement

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