India's retail inflation is expected to reach a record low in July 2025, with the average inflation for the financial year 2025-26 projected to be significantly lower than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) estimate, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
According to the statistics ministry, the year-on-year inflation rate based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was 2.10 per cent (provisional), a decline of 72 basis points in headline inflation from May 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation since January 2019.
Wholesale inflation (WPI) in India turned negative in June at (-) 0.13 per cent as against 0.39 per cent in May, official data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Monday.
In a report, the bank said June 2025 retail inflation will be at 2.3 per cent, with the worst seems to be over for now. According to them, July figures would be the near-term bottom.
Consume price inflation in India which eased to an over six-year low in May (at 2.82 per cent) is seen declining further towards 2 per cent, perhaps even lower, by July, according to a report SBI Research.
India's retail inflation is expected to rise after December this year and average around 4.5 per cent in the next financial year (FY27), according to a new report by ICICI Bank.
India's retail inflation in the first quarter of FY26 is expected to undershoot the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast of 2.9 per cent, according to a recent report by Bank of Baroda (BoB).
Analysts expect inflation to remain under control, allowing the RBI to focus on supporting economic growth. The recent 50 basis points repo cut was quite an indication.
Retail inflation, or the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will continue to moderate to 3.0 per cent in May, a six-year low, mainly due to the sequential moderation in prices of cereals and pulses even as most other segments started to strengthen, according to a Union Bank of India (UBI) report.
This is the lowest year-on-year inflation since July 2019. The decline in inflation is attributed to a decrease in prices of vegetables, pulses and products, fruits, meat and fish, personal care and effects and cereals and products.