Core inflation edged higher in February, mainly due to a surge in gold prices, but the stabilization of global edible oil prices and expectations of a normal monsoon suggest a favourable food inflation trend in the coming months.
The rainfall across India during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) was 108 per cent of the long period average (LPA), marking an above-normal monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Above-normal monsoon rains that helped farmers sow more crops this Kharif season bode well for agriculture, and are likely to improve gross value addition (GVA) in the sector
Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of n
Adding the reasons behind its anticipation, the credit agency further emphasized factors such as the inflation and, overall risk of food inflation due to the above-normal monsoon will influence the decision of the monetary committee.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) kept the Indian economic growth forecast unchanged at 7 per cent for fiscal year 2024 in the latest Asian Development Outlook.
This fiscal boost comes as India reaches a historic financial milestone. The total market capitalization of all stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) briefly surpassed USD 5 trillion for the first time, placing India among global giants such as the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong.
After the retail inflation data showed that food inflation in June almost doubled year-on-year to 8.3 percent, economic experts are optimistic that food inflation will decrease in the coming months.
Indian stock indices are off to a strong start at the opening bell Thursday, tracking firm overnight cues from US markets which rose after a softer-than-expected US consumer inflation in April.
"Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," says March 2024, monthly economic review of the finance mini
However, eastern states including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal face the risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months, while Northeast India may experience below-normal rains in the first half of the season. There will be above-normal rains over Kerala, Konka, Karnataka