ICRA estimates the YoY growth in the services gross value added (GVA) to moderate to 7.8% in Q3 2025-26 from 9.2% in Q2 2025-26, dampened by lower expansion in Government spending and services exports. After the frontloading seen in H1 2025-26 (+40.0% YoY), the Government of India's (GoI's)
According to a report from the Bank of Baroda, this transition follows a period of rapid frontloading of shipments earlier in 2025 as businesses sought to secure cost advantages before new trade barriers took effect.
Front-loading by major Asian economies ahead of the US reciprocal tariffs has significantly altered global export patterns, according to a Nomura report.