Crude oil prices are now expected to remain around USD 65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, bringing relief to global markets.
Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices, energy experts have said that oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be immediately affected, though risks remain if tensions escalate further.
If the heightened tension in West Asia pushes average crude prices by USD 10 per barrel, it will typically push up India's net oil imports by nearly USD 13-14 billion during the year, enlarging India's CAD by 0.3 per cent of GDP, noted a recent report by ICRA.
Indian stock markets opened on a weak note on Monday, reacting sharply to rising geopolitical tensions after the US-Iran conflict escalated over the weekend. Both benchmark indices faced strong selling pressure in the early trading session.
On May 30, 2025, the government announced a reduction in the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on key imported crude edible oils -- Crude Palm Oil (CPO), Crude Soybean Oil, and Crude Sunflower Oil -- lowering it from 20 per cent to 10 per cent.
Despite recent volatility and rising conflicts between Israel and Iran, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around USD 70 per barrel in FY26, according to a report by Emkay Research.
Indian airlines are facing renewed pressure on profitability as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to push global crude oil prices to USD 100 per barrel, according to a report by Nuvama.
Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri on Wednesday assured that India has sufficient petrol and diesel reserves and that India need not to worry, as it also has enough energy supplies for the coming months.
Hardeep Singh Puri, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, on Wednesday assured that there will be no shortage of crude oil and projected stability in fuel prices, despite global uncertainties.
Amid rising global crude prices, India's current account deficit (CAD) for FY25 faces an upward risk, as every USD 10 per barrel increase in oil prices can worsen the annual CAD by nearly USD 15 billion, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI).
Any further escalation in the Middle-East crisis or a sharp rise crude prices could pose a serious risk to earnings, especially for Indian Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and gas companies.
Indian Government should review energy risk scenarios, diversify crude sourcing and ensure strategic reserves of oil amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, according to a report by GTRI.