Consumer price index (CPI) or retail inflation is likely to undershoot the Reserve Bank's target in the January-March 2025 quarter, opening more policy space for easing the policy rate, Bank of Baroda said.
India's inflation outlook showed a significant improvement in February 2025, as the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate stood at 3.61 per cent, marking a decline of 65 basis points from the previous month.
Anshul Jain, Chief Executive, India, SEA & APAC Tenant Representation at Cushman & Wakefield, described the move as "well-timed and much-needed," particularly as CPI inflation eases and Q2-FY25 GDP growth slows.
On the inflation front, RBI expects Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to ease to 4.8 per cent in FY25, with Q4 FY25 inflation projected at 4.4 per cent. For FY26, inflation is forecasted at 4.2 per cent, with quarterly estimates as Q1 FY26: 4.5 per cent, Q2 FY26: 4.0 per cent, Q3 FY26:
The country's retail inflation is expected to decline to 4.5 per cent in the last quarter (January-March) of the financial year 2024-25 (FY25), while the overall average inflation for the year is likely to be at 4.8 per cent, according to a recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
India's economic outlook for 2025 presents cautious optimism with consumer spending expected to recover, aided by a positive outlook for agriculture and rural consumption, according to the latest Economic Outlook Survey by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).
Inflation in India is expected to ease in the coming months, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projected to remain in the range of 4.2-4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY25, according to a report by Bank of Baroda.
India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to moderate to 5 per cent in December 2024 from 5.5 per cent in November, according to a report by Bank of Baroda.
December data indicates further corrections in vegetable prices, while favorable soil moisture and reservoir levels are expected to support a robust Rabi harvest. Additionally, benign global food and energy prices are expected to keep food inflation risks low in the near term.
India's retail inflation in November was at 5.48 per cent as compared to 6.21 per cent logged in October, falling in line with the Reserve Bank of India's 2-6 per cent comfort band.