Global rating agency Fitch has revised India's growth outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 6.9 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.5% in June Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Fitch Ratings has lowered India's growth forecast for 2025-26 by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent. For 2026-27 the growth forecast is lowered by 20 basis points to 6.3 per cent.
Fitch Ratings has sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth in response to the severe escalation in the global trade war, lowering world growth in 2025 by 0.4pp and China and US growth by 0.5pp, according to its its quarterly Global Economic Outlook.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's growth rate for FY25-26 to 6.5 per cent and to 6.3 per cent for FY26-27 in its March Edition of the Global Economic Outlook because of the US-imposed global trade war. However, it adds that India is somehow insulated because of its self-sufficiency.
The near-term global economic outlook is influenced by trade policies of major economies amid a slowing disinflation, said Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday, soon after the GDP figures for October-December was released.
JP Morgan outlines an optimistic yet complex global economic outlook for 2025, predicting a low likelihood of recession, estimating only a 15 per cent probability of an economic downturn in the first half of the year.
The rating agency has elevated India's growth forecast by 20 basis point to 7.2 per cent for fiscal year 2024-25. Earlier in March Fitch has forecasted India's growth at 7 per cent.
Fitch Ratings has raised its 2024 global GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4 per cent in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), arguing that the prospects for growth world over in the near-term have improved.
The anticipated increase is attributed to several factors including higher growth prospects in emerging markets compared to developed markets and the potential for US Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year.
According to Fitch Ratings, the report highlights the resilience of global growth in 2023, driven by the normalization of consumption in China and a resurgence in US growth.