Not over yet: Michael Kugelman forecasts continued US-Iran diplomacy despite Islamabad gridlock

Washington DC [US], April 12 (ANI): While US Vice President JD Vance's departure from Pakistan without a signed agreement has been characterised by some as a diplomatic failure, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, suggested that the "Islamabad Dialogue" is merely a pause in a much longer game.
In a post on X, Kugelman argued that the sheer seniority of the American delegation--and the domestic pressures weighing on the White House--indicated that the United States is far from walking away from the negotiating table.
"The US, for domestic political reasons, wants a deal that enables it to exit the war. That such a senior group flew all the way to Pak shows the US commitment. Despite Vance's comments, this likely isn't over. More talks could come-but unclear if they'll be in Pak or elsewhere", Kugelman said.

The US, for domestic political reasons, wants a deal that enables it to exit the war. That such a senior group flew all the way to Pak shows the US commitment. Despite Vance’s comments, this likely isn’t over. More talks could come-but unclear if they’ll be in Pak or elsewhere.

— Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) April 12, 2026

With the American electorate increasingly weary of foreign entanglements and the 2026 economic crisis straining resources, the administration is under immense pressure to secure an "exit strategy" from the regional conflict.
By hosting the most significant US-Iran engagement since 1979, Islamabad has proved its utility to Washington at a time when the administration is seeking reliable mediators.
Kugelman's assessment suggests three likely paths forward: Continued low-level technical discussions away from the public eye to resolve the "Lebanon condition" and leverage gaps; future high-level summits possibly shifting to a neutral European city or a Middle Eastern hub like Muscat or Doha and a period of "maximum pressure" rhetoric from the US to force Iranian concessions before the next formal round begins.
While the Islamabad marathon didn't cross the finish line, Kugelman's analysis indicates that the US is too deep into this diplomatic "misadventure" to quit now.
JD Vance left Pakistan after Tehran and Washington hit a stalemate in the talks, with the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear capacities being key bones of contention.
"We've had a number of substance agreements with the Iranians- that is the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. That is bad news for Iran, much more than it is bad news for the United States of America", Vance told reporters in Islamabad.
Meanwhile, Iran's Head of Center for Public Diplomacy and Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei, on Sunday, said that Iran's negotiators are employing all their capabilities, adding that the success of the efforts depends on the acceptance of Iran's legitimate rights and interests.
Baqaei said that Iran's heavy losses have made its resolve stronger than ever and that it uses all its tools to secure its national interests.
"Nothing can or should deter us from pursuing our great historical mission toward our beloved homeland and noble Iranian civilization. The Islamic Republic of Iran is determined to utilize all tools, including diplomacy, to secure national interests and protect the country's well-being," he said.
"In the past 24 hours, discussions were held on various dimensions of the main negotiation topics, including the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war against Iran and in the region. The success of this diplomatic process depends on the seriousness and good faith of the opposing side, refraining from excessive demands and unlawful requests, and the acceptance of Iran's legitimate rights and interests," he added. (ANI)