Why Taliban's decision to outlaw opium cultivation is difficult to implement

Kabul [Afghanistan], April 18 (ANI): The Taliban have announced measures to halt opium trade even as the country's economy is facing a serious resource crunch.
It is unclear how the Taliban government plans to replace this illicit source of income for millions of farmers. The Taliban government imposed a ban on the cultivation of opium poppy which is used to produce illegal drugs like heroin. The ban comes during opium harvesting season in southern Afghanistan. It stipulates imprisonment of farmers involved in the cultivation of opium poppy and burning of the crop. Afghanistan, nevertheless, would not find the implementation of the ban easy for several reasons.
The US Charge d' Affairs for Afghanistan, Ian Mccary, welcomed the announcement by the supreme leader of the Taliban Mullah Hebtullah Akhundzada banning the cultivation, use, production, selling, buying, import and export of opium in Afghanistan. He noted that outlawing the production of narcotics in Afghanistan is a positive first step, however, implementing the same would be crucial. Concerned about the channelling of poppy income to terrorism and other nefarious activities, the US spent more than USD 8 billion in a bid to halt opium poppy production during its years in Afghanistan.
The million-dollar question is how Afghanistan would implement the ban of cultivation, production and sale of opium. Going by the latest available estimates, in FY 2019-20 alone, the Taliban raked $ 1.6 billion from a wide variety of sources which included USD 416 million from selling opium. Revenue from opium cultivation had been the main source of income for the Taliban to procure arms and ammunition and carry out its activities of terror.
The decision of the Taliban is welcome, but it is viewed that they would find it challenging to implement the same. For the past 20 years, the US government and other countries have financed a major part of the Afghan government's non-military budget, but now with the stopping of American aid and central bank foreign reserves frozen, it would be very difficult to keep the economy afloat in the absence of other sources of revenue except mining. Taliban would have to find other means to mobilize revenue to run the government, build infrastructure and implement welfare programmes.
The Taliban 2.0 has come at a time when Afghanistan's population increased from under 20 million in the 1990s to 3.89 crore in 2020. The cost of running the government has also enhanced from the Taliban government's budget of USD 100,000 in 1997 to USD 5.5 billion in 2020. It would be difficult to function without diversified sources of revenue. Even the latest Afghan budget presented by the Taliban government for FY 2021-22 has projected a deficit despite 219 million Afghani (USD 2.7 billion) in aid and grants and 217 billion from domestic revenue.
The Covid-19 pandemic has already depressed collections from customs duties, taxes, income from fees on services like passports, telecommunications and roads, etc. Apart from this, there is considerable leakage due to corruption. A report suggested that USD 8 million was being embezzled out of Afghanistan every day, adding up to USD 3 billion annually. In such a case the only hope is on the estimated USD 600 million income through mining of iron ore, marble and gold, etc.
Afghanistan has sought international recognition for its new anti-opium cultivation rule. The country reportedly produced about 80per cent of global opium and heroin supplies. It is estimated to have USD 1 billion worth of minerals (including critical metals like lithium, iron, copper and cobalt) and these may be a source on which Afghanistan could fall back upon.
China has evinced interest in mining in Afghanistan. However, it would not be possible in short run to develop mining and secondly, China's mining operations elsewhere have been controversial, especially in the African countries, where they allegedly resulted in displacement and environmental degradation.
Analysts believe that the Afghan economy should develop its agriculture sector and diversify its industry to reduce its dependence on external funding. If Afghanistan makes such efforts, its development partners like the US, the EU and India would also come forward to assist. (ANI)