Speculations about fall in GDP based on anecdotal evidence, says Shaktikanta Das

India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to moderate to 7.1 per cent in fiscal 2027 from 7.6 per cent in the previous year, according to a report by Crisil Intelligence.

The primary concern for the Indian economy is the sharp increase in fuel costs. According to the report, "Brent has moved up from a range of US$ 65-US$ 70 per barrel to US$ 110 per barrel since the war broke out." This surge is linked to major infrastructure failures in the region. "Iran's oil infrastructure has been damaged. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. LNG supply from Qatar is closed. Natural gas price has surged by 50%," the report added.

In an interview with ANI, Mishra highlighted that India's heavy reliance on imported "dense energy" makes it a primary target for global price volatility. "Every dollar increase per barrel costs approximately $1.8 billion annually. For instance, a $50 increase in oil prices represents a $90 billion impact, which is more than 2% of our GDP if sustained for a year."

Former Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian has expressed confidence that India can sustain an average economic growth rate of around 8 per cent over the next two decades, arguing that policymakers must aim for such expansion if the country is to fully realise its long-term economic potential.

New GDP Series changes size and structure of Indian economy, with India's latest national accounts revision altering estimates of the economy's size, sectoral composition and expenditure patterns while improving statistical measurement of economic activity according to the Finance Ministry's February 2026, Monthly Economic Review. The revised series, with 2022-23 as the new base year, introduces methodological and data improvements that more accurately capture structural changes such as formalisation, digitalisation and emerging service-sector activities.