MoSPI Secretary rejects GDP data-fudging claims, says old and new series cannot be compared

New Delhi [India], September 2 (ANI): Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Secretary Saurabh Garg has rejected claims that India's GDP data was manipulated to make the latest growth rate appear stronger, saying the comparison being used to arrive at a lower growth estimate is between the old and new GDP series and is therefore not appropriate.
Earlier, Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg while speaking to a news channel had questioned the reported 7.8 per cent GDP growth in Q1 FY27, arguing that last year's current GDP had been revised from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore and that, without the revision, growth at current prices would have been around 2.6 per cent.
Responding to the claim in an interview with ANI, Saurabh Garg called the statement "highly unfortunate" and said year-on-year economic growth should be compared using constant prices rather than current prices.
"The first issue is whenever we compare year to year we always compare on constant prices because current prices include price inflation and therefore current price is not the correct method to compare from year to year," Garg said.
He said the second issue was that the comparison did not involve similar datasets.
"The second issue is whenever we do comparison, we need to compare like-for-like. We can't compare apples to oranges," he said.
Garg explained that India had revised the GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23 in February. He said the revision was carried out using the latest methodologies, data sources and mechanisms, and that such base-year revisions are undertaken internationally every five to seven years.
According to him, the reduction in GDP that has been cited as evidence of manipulation had already been reflected when the new series was released in February, well before the Q1 GDP figures were announced.
He also pointed to physical production data as another indicator supporting the strong growth reported in the latest GDP figures.
"If you look at the volume output, or for example, number of automobiles produced, the amount of cement produced, amount of steel produced, and you compare this from quarter one of last year and quarter one of this year, this shows extremely high growth of 12 per cent, 14 per cent, 16 per cent when we look at volume growth," Garg said.
He rejected the suggestion that the National Statistics Office had fudged the data, saying the organisation has sought to remain transparent about its methodologies and data.
"The attempt of the National Statistics Office has been to ensure that we are transparent and very open about our data, about the methodologies that we are using," he said.
On criticism of manufacturing estimates, Garg said MoSPI had released 64 sets of tables along with the latest data and has made extensive data and methodology available since February and May.
He said the revised methodology also makes use of additional data sources that have become available through GST and digital penetration, helping MoSPI arrive at the new estimates.
Garg also rejected a direct comparison between the 2.5 per cent implied GDP inflation rate, 3.9 per cent CPI inflation and over 9 per cent WPI inflation.
He explained that GDP deflation uses price impacts for more than 300 different items or groups and, in manufacturing, removes the price effect from both inputs and outputs.
"Therefore, a simple comparison of the headline number of wholesale prices and consumer prices is not appropriate," he said. (ANI)