India's GST buoyancy seen improving on festive demand, stronger consumption: Industry experts

New Delhi [India], September 1 (ANI): India's GST buoyancy is expected to improve in the coming months, supported by stronger consumption and the upcoming festive season, even as revenue growth continues to lag nominal GDP growth, as per industry experts.
As per the provisional government data released on Tuesday, India's Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue surged to Rs 1,99,853 crore in August 2026, up 14.8 per cent year-on-year jump from Rs 1,74,116 crore in August 2025.
The rise in gross collections came on the back of domestic transactions and imports. Gross revenue from domestic transactions climbed 9.3 per cent to Rs 1,37,249 crore in August, compared with Rs 1,25,570 crore in the same month last year.
According to Saurabh Agarwal, Tax Partner, EY India, GST collections nearing the Rs 2 lakh crore mark reflects steady consumption and improving compliance.
He noted that the uptick in exports across electronics, mobile phones and automotives is a positive validation of the government's manufacturing-focused policy interventions, which indicates that India's positioning in global value chains is strengthening.
"That said, the concurrent rise in imports points to continuing dependence on external sourcing in certain segments, reinforcing the need for a calibrated policy push towards deeper localisation and import substitution in these sectors," he added, noting, "Equally encouraging is the pickup in collections from states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Ladakh, and Andaman & Nicobar -- a trend that reflects the broadening of economic activity beyond traditional industrial hubs and points to more inclusive, geographically balanced growth."
"Looking ahead, with the festive season round the corner, revenue collections over the next couple of months are likely to trend higher, supported by increased consumer spending," he said.
On the other hand, Vivek Jalan, Partner, Tax Connect Advisory Services LLP, said India's GST collections in August 2026 reaffirm the "resilience of domestic consumption, which continues to anchor growth in line with the recent GDP trajectory."
Noting, India's gross domestic revenues rose to Rs 1,37,249 crore, he highlighted, "While India's GST buoyancy may YTD (April-August 2026) is below unity at around 0.7, as net GST revenue growth of 9.0 per cent trails real GDP growth of 7.8 per cent and nominal GDP growth of 10.3 per cent, with inflation averaging 4.4-5.1 per cent; with ensuing festive season, it is expected to move towards unity."
He further noted that "the statutory time-barring deadline of 31st August further strengthened compliance, adding to revenue inflows. Yet, the sharp 72.6 per cent surge in domestic refunds -- driven by inverted duty structures -- signals a structural imbalance that warrants urgent redressal."
"The August figures thus present a dual narrative: strong consumption and compliance on one hand, and systemic challenges on the other. Addressing these will be critical to sustaining the buoyancy of GST as India's most important revenue instrument," he noted.
According to Pratik Jain, Partner, Price Waterhouse & Co LLP, the double-digit year-to-date growth is encouraging to see, despite the rate cuts in September 2025.
"Monthly growth of around 15 per cent in collections is also strong, fuelled by imports even though there have been geopolitical headwinds over last few months. As the concerns around GST collections are lesser, the GST council may be able to take bolder reform measures in the upcoming meeting," he said. (ANI)