EV purchases may be deferred in near term but see sharp uptick in sales after EV policy implementation: Axis Direct

New Delhi [India], April 16 (ANI): Delhi's draft EV Policy 2024-2030 lays out one of India's most aggressive state-level roadmaps to push electrification, combining heavy incentives, strict mandates, and scrappage benefits. With a proposed outlay of Rs 40,000 Cr, the policy could reshape demand patterns and original equipment manufacturing strategies well beyond the capital, according to Axis Direct.
100% electric registration for three-wheelers by January 2027 and for two-wheelers by April 2028. To get there, incentives are heavily front-loaded to drive early adoption. Electric two-wheelers will get Rs 10,000 per kWh in Year 1, capped at Rs 30,000, before tapering to Rs 6,600 in Year 2 and Rs 3,300 in Year 3. Axis Securities notes this structure targets Delhi's vehicle base, where 67% comprises 2Ws. High-utilisation segments also get fixed support: e-autos Rs 50,000 in Year 1, and N1 goods carriers Rs 1,00,000.
For passenger vehicles, direct subsidies have been withdrawn. Instead, the policy shifts to scrappage-linked payouts and tax benefits to improve fiscal efficiency. E-cars can get up to Rs 1,00,000 for scrapping older BS-IV vehicles, capped at 1,00,000 applicants. N1 trucks get Rs 50,000. Road tax and registration remain fully waived for most EVs, but e-cars above Rs 30 lakh are excluded to keep benefits mass-market focused. Strong hybrids get a 50% road tax cut below Rs 30 lakh, signaling their transitional role.
The policy also tackles ecosystem bottlenecks. Delhi Transco Limited will be the nodal agency for public charging, handling demand aggregation and grid readiness. OEMs must set up at least one public charging station per dealer, with specific charging-point requirements for 2W/3W and 4W. On the recycling front, the Environment Department and DPCC will enforce strict Extended Producer Responsibility and battery traceability rules.
Axis Direct sees the policy favoring players with early investments and scale. In two-wheelers, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, and Ather Energy are well placed. In passenger vehicles, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra lead, while Japanese OEMs "may need to accelerate EV strategies to remain competitive." The three-wheeler market remains highly consolidated, and mandates will likely strengthen dominant players.
The draft is open for public feedback for 30 days and will run until 31 March 2030 once notified. Axis expects near-term deferral in EV purchases until policy clarity emerges. But post-implementation, "the policy is expected to drive a sharp uptick in EV sales over the subsequent few months, led by pent-up demand and improved incentive visibility."
While Delhi accounts for just 3-4% of national 2W and PV sales, it acts as India's lead indicator for EV penetration. "The shift toward mandatory electrification provides a clear roadmap for other high-pollution urban centers," the note said. For investors, Axis remains selective, preferring OEMs with strong pricing power and established EV portfolios. (ANI)